The longest regular season in NWSL history is over, and now the real chaos begins. Washington Spirit finished third in the league with a 17-4-9 record, earning them the right to host a quarterfinal match. Portland Thorns’ 14-8-8 record was good enough for a sixth place finish, and a trip to Audi Field in the opening round of the playoffs.

In the opening match of the postseason, Utah Royals upset San Diego Wave, and now await the winner of Spirit vs. Thorns in the semifinal round. On the other side of the bracket, Kansas City Current squeaked by Angel City courtesy of a dubious penalty call in added extra time. Both matches highlight the paper thin margins of NWSL playoff soccer.

One defensive hesitation and one ill-timed act spotted and judged by a referee has been all that’s needed to send two teams home. Not just any two teams either. One, San Diego, finished second in the league and had a chance to win the NWSL Shield on Decision Day. The other, Angel City, had only lost twice since July.

Now it is Washington and Portland’s turn to step into this cauldron.

What to Expect

Earlier this season, Denver Summit head coach Nick Cushing complained after losing 1-0 to the Thorns. He lamented Portland’s approach, saying “…they just sit, they don’t really move they just sit, wait for the turnover and give it to a world class #9 [Sophia Wilson].” That’s slightly rudimentary analysis, but also not entirely wrong. They could try sophisticated ways of baiting a press to draw players out of possessions and quickly work the ball to Wilson in space, or they can stay organized in defense, force turnovers, and wait for space to present itself in transition.

Having Sophia Wilson is like possessing a samurai sword. You can spend years learning the discipline of a specific martial art, or you can just swing the dang sword.

Previously

2-1, Spirit. You may remember this one. The Spirit went down early to a penalty taken and scored by Sophia Wilson, but the Spirit fought back in the second half. Tara Rudd took and scored an equalizing penalty, then late in the match new arrival Mélissa Bethi scored her first NWSL goal to give the Spirit the win—their first ever at Providence Park.

Washington Spirit will win if…

I could spend a few paragraphs breaking down the Spirit’s approach to control and keys to sustaining it against top-tier individual attacking talents. Or dissect Portland Thorns’ midfield rebuild in the wake of Sam Coffey’s departure and Olivia Moultrie’s midseason ACL injury. But the reality of this match is likely to be much simpler: If Spirit players have to turn to chase Portland in transition a lot, the Thorns will have the advantage. If Portland are forced to build through the thirds, the advantage will be the Spirit’s.

This graph charts how many passes each team averages per possession, as well as their average vertical passing distance. Basically, how does a team use possession to attack, and are they doing it with long balls, short passes, or something in between. The Spirit have the third lowest average pass vertical distance and fourth highest passes per possession, both suggesting a more patient approach. Contrastingly, only three teams cover more vertical passing distance than the Thorns, and only three have lower numbers of passes per possession. ‘Get the ball to Wilson’ is a simplistic read, but not an entirely unfair one.

However, it’s about more than Wilson. Caiya Hanks, whose rookie of the year season in 2025 was cut short due by an ACL injury, is back and looking dangerous again; as is Morgan Weaver. In the absence of Olivia Moultrie, Pietra Tordin has stepped up in attacking midfield, and contributed eight goals and nine assists this season. Wilson is a big problem, but she’s by far the only one.

The Spirit have to decide whether they can have success with their preferred gameplan, or if they need to try something drastic like turning the tables to let Portland have the ball and hitting them in transition. If Adrián González decides to trot out the same midfield of Andi Sullivan, Leicy Santos and Mélissa Bethi that he used once Hal went down versus Kansas City and again from the start against Chicago, they have to show more defensive resistance—in and out of possession—than we’ve seen so far.

Whichever path they choose, the one thing they absolutely must do is score a dang goal. Again, rudimentary, but this season the Spirit have had a handful of close games in which they’ve needed a goal and never found one. This season the Spirit finished their thirty game regular season having created a total of 47.3 expected goals, but only actually scoring 41, suggesting they scored at least six fewer goals than their chances suggested.

I’m extrapolating here, but depending on where those six goals are distributed, and the points gained from them, that could have been the difference between lifting the NWSL Shield and finishing third. Conversely, the Thorns created 47.59 expected goals and scored 49 real ones. The Spirit must limit Portland’s sights at goal, especially knowing that they have a knack of converting low value shots.

It’s modest analysis to suggest that the winning strategy is to score goals while stopping the opponent from scoring, but yeah.

Washington Spirit will lose if…

The Spirit will have to find the right solution to disrupt Portland’s transition opportunities. There are a number of tacts to take, but there’s no more margin for error. Washington has had one full game to figure out how to provide defensive cover in spaces in and out of possession without Hal Hershfelt, but struggled to keep Chicago (the worst team in the league) pinned.

A repeat performance against the attacking talent of Portland Thorns would be a one way ticket to a first round playoff exit.

Availability Reports

Washington Spirit

Portland Thorns

OUT: Bella Bixby (Knee – SEI), Olivia Moultrie (Knee – SEI)

Location: Audi Field (Washington, DC)
Kickoff time: 3 PM ET
Available TV: ESPN+