When Major League Soccer announced its intent to switch its schedule to summer-to-spring in order to align with leagues around the world, one of the stated reasons was to “create better opportunities in the transfer market” for teams. Almost immediately, parts of the internet commented on just how bad the weather gets in certain MLS cities during the winter months.  But beyond anecdotal accounts, such as the February 2022 USMNT World Cup qualifier against Honduras in St. Paul where temperatures at kick off were in the single digits and two Honduran players were treated for hypothermia, just how do winters in MLS cities compare to those in Europe? How will those difference impact MLS teams’ ability to recruit top talent? What could Washington’s weather mean for D.C. United.

            To address the first question and determine just how North American winters compare with those in Europe, average temperature, precipitation, and snowfall totals for 29 cities hosting MLS stadiums and 29 cities in England and Germany for the months of October, November, December, January, February, and March.  (Atlanta was not included because The Five Stripes play in the domed Mercedes Benz Stadium and are less subject to weather issues. A total of 29 teams were selected from Germany and England to keep sample sizes the same. For a full breakdown of cities included and methodology, please see the footnote at the end.) Weather data was collected from Weatherspark.com due to the easily available data in the desired categories. Cursory queries online, deemed their data as generally reliable.

Temperature

At first glance, it generally appears that North American winters are warmer than those in either of the European counterparts chosen for this analysis. On average, winter in MLS cities is about 2.7 degrees warmer than for their English counterparts and 6.4 degrees warmer than Germany. However, in this case, averages don’t provide the full picture and can be a bit deceiving. Given the size difference between Germany, England, and the combined area of the US and Canada (Germany being slightly the area of Montana and England roughly Iowa in area), there is more variation in climate for MLS cities than those in the Premier League/Championship and Bundesliga/2 Bundesliga. Using December as an example, there is a 51 degree difference in temperature between Miami (71 degrees), MLS’s highest average temperature in that month, and St. Paul (20 degrees), MLS’s lowest. In England, the difference between its warmest average December (London and Portsmouth- 45 degree) and its lowest (eight cities at 40 degrees) is five degrees. In Germany, the differences is 7 degrees (39 and 32 degrees).

            Temperatures vary so much between MLS host cities that the average December temperature in 24 out of the 29 cities is on either side of the England’s five degree range. St. Paul is on average twenty degrees colder than the coldest cities in England. On the other end of the spectrum, Miami is on average 26 degrees warmer than London and Portsmouth. Similarly, 18 cities in North America have an average December temperature outside of the Germany’s average temperature range for the month. This is not a one off. The average February temperature in 10 MLS cities is colder than the lowest average English temperature. Five North American cities have average temperatures colder than the lowest in Germany.

The Elements

While comparing temperatures between North American, English, and German cities requires a bit of nuanced approach, analyzing precipitation is much more straight forward. On average MLS cities are rainier and snowier than Premier League and Bundesliga counterparts. On average it rains in MLS host cities over .6 an inch a month more than in England between October and March. When compared to German cities, that total expands to just over a full inch difference.

Snow totals follow a similar pattern. Snow accumulates so sparingly in England, Weatherspark didn’t capture data totals making an accurate comparison impossible. On average, it snows about an inch more a month in MLS cities than ones that host Bundesliga/2 Bundesliga during the six fall and winter months.

Will This Really Help MLS Recruit Top Talent?

Given North America’s huge variation in temperature during the winter and potentially harsher playing conditions, will MLS’s schedule actually help the league attract top talent? Its impossible to know right now. There is a possibility that the schedule change may attract foreign players, but primarily to fair weather places like Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego. Teams in harsher climates may have to pay a premium to attract talent. Playing in locations that tend to be on the extreme end of cold could also drive down attendance in these markets, further hamstringing teams financially. These factors could potentially stratify the league further. There is also a chance that free agents may be turned off by the thought of having to go on the road to play a game in single digits in St. Paul or in a snowstorm in Montreal and decide to ply their trade elsewhere. More likely, however, is none of this will matter and players will be motivated by the economics of the situation. Players will play in any condition if the teams and leagues actually pay them enough to make it worth it.

How Does D.C.’s Weather Compare?

Climate-wise Washington, D.C tends to hover right around the national averages for for average temperature and rainfall for MLS cities. In the months of December and February, D.C. averages slightly colder than the national average (between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees) for that time frame. For comparison, D.C. would be among the coldest English cities and among the warmest of the German cities on the list.

Washington is slightly less rainy than the national average during this time as well (between .01 inches and .3 inches). D.C.’s major deviation from the national averages is in snowfall. Washington is snowier than the national average in December and February (between .4 and 1.8 inches).

While Washington’s weather is not going to be the primary draw for anyone signing with the team, it could be a deciding factor for anyone deciding between the Black-and-Red and a team in the northern or mid west regions, if all other factors are equal.

Note on Methodology

Data was collected from weatherspark.com for 29 MLS cities with outdoor stadiums. Atlanta was not included because of Mercedes Benz Stadiums dome. Data for the future locations of Inter Miami and New York FC’s future homes (Queens, and Miami) were used instead of their current homes (Bronx and Fort Lauderdale).

Given the difference in size between the Premier League and MLS and the number of cities like London, Manchester, and Liverpool that are home to multiple teams, additional cities from the Championship were included. English city climate data includes that for: Birmingham, Blackburn, Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton, Bristol, Burnley, Coventry, Derby, Hull, Ipswich, Leeds, Liverpool, London, Manchester, Middlesbrough, Newcastle upon Tyne, Nottingham, Portsmouth, Preston, Sheffield, Southampton, Stoke-on-Trent, Sunderland, Swansea, Watford, West Bromwich, Wolverhampton, and Wrexham. Given the difference in size between the Bundesliga and MLS and cities that are home to multiple teams, additional cities from 2 Bundesliga were included. German city climate data includes that for: Augsburg, Berlin, Bielefeld, Bochum, Bremen, Darmstadt, Dortmund, Frankfurt, Freiburg, Hamburg, Hannover, Heidenheim, Hoffenheim, Kaiserslautern, Karlsruhe, Kiel, Köln, Leipzig, Leverkusen, Mainz, Mönchengladbach, Munich, Münster, Nürnberg, Paderborn, Schalke, Spiesen-Elversberg, Wolfsburg.